Guided by self-interest, all countries seek power, leverage and resources. In this, a country's geography is like a prison, because its limits and constraints are difficult to overcome. This is the basic premise of Tim Marshall as he looks at the geographies, histories and challenges of ten areas of the world in his 2015 book, "Prisoners of Geography - Ten Maps that tell Everything You Need to Know About Global Politics".
I have just finished reading this book and I found its conclusions very harsh, sometimes even heart-breaking. At the same time, I found it stimulating and thought-provoking.
We live in utopian times - even with the wars and climate change and loss of bio-diversity, I somehow feel that with our new knowledge, understandings and innovations, the humanity will find a way to a better tomorrow. I dream that our future world will be guided by ideals of peace, brotherhood and mutual collaboration between countries and peoples. Marshall says that this utopian dream may remain just a dream, because countries and peoples are guided by their self-interests and they can't escape their geographies.
Geographical Areas Covered in the Book
The book looks at geographies and histories of ten areas - Russia, China, USA, Western Europe, Africa, Middle East, India & Pakistan, Korea & Japan, Latin America and the Arctic. For each of these areas, Marshall provides an overview of its geographical layout and history, especially the evolution of its relationships with its neighbours.
He says that the relationships between countries are dominated by the ancient ideas of suspicion, self-interest and gaining control over resources. Countries and their governments might talk of brotherhood and collaboration but they never forget those ancient ideas and when needed, go to war over them.
For example, in the part about the geography of Russia, he writes:
"Poland represents a relatively narrow corridor into which Russia could drive its armed forces if necessary and thus prevent an enemy from advancing towards Moscow. But from this point the wedge begins to broaden; by the time you get to Russia’s borders it is over 2,000 miles wide, and is flat all the way to Moscow and beyond ... You might think that no one is intent on invading Russia, but that is not how the Russians see it, and with good reason. In the past 500 years they have been invaded several times from the west."
There are different wars in the world-history, described in Marshall's book, that I was unaware of, and thus it was very instructive to read this book. For example, I was not aware of the history of the Kurds. Here is a part about it, in the section on the Middle East (p. 256):
"Kurdistan is not a sovereign recognised state but it has many of the trappings of one, and current events in the Middle East only add to the probability that there will be a Kurdistan in name and in international law. The questions are: what shape will it be? And how will Syria, Turkey and Iran react if their Kurdish regions attempt to be part of it and try to create a contiguous Kurdistan with access to the Mediterranean?
There will be another problem: unity among the Kurds. Iraqi Kurdistan has long been divided between two rival families. Syria’s Kurds are trying to create a statelet they call Rojava ... If Kurdistan does become an internationally recognised state then the shape of Iraq will change. That assumes there will be an Iraq. There may not be."
His descriptions of the fissures in the Middle East are the most hard-hitting and pessimist part of the book. For example, he writes about Islamism and Palestinian refugees (p. 259), "Such changes to a country’s demographics can cause serious problems, and nowhere more so than in Lebanon." Another example, is in the following extract about the future of the "Arab Spring":
"In the Middle East power does indeed flow from the barrel of a gun. Some good citizens of Misrata in Libya may want to develop a liberal democratic party, some might even want to campaign for gay rights; but their choice will be limited if the local de facto power shoots liberal democrats and gays. Iraq is a case in point: a democracy in name only, far from liberal, and a place where people are routinely murdered for being homosexual.
The second phase of the Arab uprising is well into its stride. This is the complex internal struggle within societies where religious beliefs, social mores, tribal links and guns are currently far more powerful forces than ‘Western’ ideals of equality, freedom of expression and universal suffrage. The Arab countries are beset by prejudices, indeed hatreds of which the average Westerner knows so little that they tend not to believe them even if they are laid out in print before their eyes. We are aware of our own prejudices, which are legion, but often seem to turn a blind eye to those in the Middle East.
The routine expression of hatred for others is so common in the Arab world that it barely draws comment other than from the region’s often Western-educated liberal minority who have limited access to the platform of mass media."
In Conclusion
The book ends on a pessimistic note and is brutal about our prospects for a more peaceful world, at least in the immediate future:
"As the twenty-first century progresses, the geographical factors that have helped determine our history will mostly continue to determine our future: a century from now, Russia will still be looking anxiously westward across what will remain flatland. India and China will still be separated by the Himalayas. They may eventually come into conflict with each other, but if that does happen, then geography will determine the nature of the fight ... Of course geography does not dictate the course of all events. Great ideas and great leaders are part of the push and pull of history. But they must all operate within the confines of geography. The leaders of Bangladesh might dream of preventing the waters from flooding up the Bay of Bengal, but they know that 80 per cent of the country is on a flood plain and cannot be moved. It is a point the Scandinavian and English leader King Canute made to his sycophantic courtiers in the eleventh century, when ordering the waves to retreat: nature, or God, was greater than any man. In Bangladesh all that can be done is to react to the realities of nature: build more flood defences, and hope that the computer modelling of rising waters due to global warming is overstated."
This book was written in 2015 and some of its worries about possible conflicts (such as Russia - Ukraine, Israel - Palestine, north and south Sudan, D.R. of Congo) have become realities.
If you are interested in geopolitics and want a deeper understanding about our past, on-going and potential future conflicts and challenges, do read this book.
*****
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